I had the pleasure of visiting the US Open last week. The annual Golfing event was held at Bethpage Black. A public golf course on Long Island in New York. To be fair, I had never been to a major golfing event and didn't know what to expect and went in with eyes wide open.

Unfortunately it was sogging wet on the ground due to heavy rains from the previous day. Regardless, my expectations of hospitality, food, beverage and safety were higher than normal prior to arriving. What I found dissapoint… Continue

The chart of the week is weekly dairy cow slaughter. This is an important statistic to monitor because it can indicate the trend in the size of the milk cow herd and thus milk production levels. Dairy cow slaughter for the week ending June 13th was 50% larger than the 5 year average for the week. Dairy cow slaughter has been trending well above last year’s inflated levels for about 7 consecutive weeks. Thus, we anticipate that a notable net reduction in the milk cow herd is likely to occur this… Continue

Electronic Reporting comes in many shapes and sizes. Depending on the Foodservice Distributors that you purchase from, the complexity and breadth of information that is reportable vary greatly. Large broadline distributors such as US Foods and Sysco, have the ability to provide foodservice operators with detailed information on purchases. Sysco many times refers to their usage reports as Satrak’s which simply stands for Sales Tracking. Other popular titles which for all intensive purposes mean t… Continue

The chart of the week is weekly sow slaughter. A sow is a female pig that has produced a litter of piglets. The weekly sow slaughter numbers can give the trade an indication of a building or contracting hog herd. It works like this. When farmers want to reduce the size of the herd, they liquidate a portion of their breeding inventory (sows) as well as send more gilts (female pigs that haven’t produced a litter yet) to slaughter instead of retaining them to produce. The net effects from these act… Continue

My ongoing test of Twitter continues. In case you are not a Twitter-holic, here's my recent #FCTips:

Local chain is offering $2.99 cheesesteaks. Deep revenue drops on popular items destroy the % analysis model for costs and profit.

Keep entree prices below $25 in 2009!

Develop food cost controls you can depend on during peak volume (both seasonal and day of week).

Accurate forecasting on busy nights is the key to success. Keep ordering and production tight (especially if you close on Monday)… Continue

The chart of the week is the year to date change in the number of prime cattle slaughtered in 2009 compared to prior years. As noted in the latest issue of the Weekly Commodity Report, the percentages of cattle grading choice and prime are trending well above average levels for this time of the year. And as written in previous notes, despite the 4% decline so far in overall beef production, our models suggest that prime and choice beef output are somewhere around 3% higher than a year ago. If yo… Continue

Facebook, twitter, myspace, restaurant.com, even sites here at ning are inconsequential for most participants. How do I come to such conclusions?

One more; I have read many an authors attempt to direct foodservice managers to the web beyond their websites. In fact, I have read some great stories of how twitter and facebook have driven sales succesfully to locations.

So where is the rub?

For me it comes down to plain vanilla basics. Time and time again I notice, observe and interact with the f… Continue

The chart of the week is corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks per use ratios. Basically, an ending stocks per use ratio formula is; stocks leftover at the end of the business day on the last day of the crop year divided by how much we use in the crop year. So for example, if we have 10 bushels of corn leftover and we use 100 bushels for various outlets during the crop year, we would have a 10% ending stocks per use ratio. What you need to know looking at this chart is that the lower the ratio t… Continue

Click here to view or download the e-book. (PDF)

"One of the best articles I have read on social media that relates directly the restaurant business. Great job Jeffrey and RCS!" ~ Keith an… Continue

I started posting short food cost tips on Twitter. They all begin with FCTip to make it easy to follow. To make it easy on the members, I'll post summaries here on FSC:

If you use a 10% safety factor when ordering perishable food, try 9% for a few weeks. If it works, keep slicing until you hit 5%.

Is waste a problem? Designate a special waste basket for spoiled food. Weigh this basket daily. Record the weights on a chart.

Your food cost % tends to have a direct relationship to the number of p… Continue

The chart of the week is annual chicken production. As stated in the latest issue of the Weekly Commodity Report, chicken production in 2009 as an annual average is forecasted to decline for the first time in 34 years. Why? It’s well documented that chicken producer margins have suffered during the past 18 months or so which has caused them to cut production. Chicken production for the better part of 2009 has been trending 5% plus below year ago levels. 2009 will almost certainly mark only the f… Continue

Joe Dunbar and I spent all four days at the NRA show (which ended yesterday); we walked all the aisles at least twice. Being completely non-scientific but trying to be observant we came up with the following:

1) We estimated that floor traffic was down 35% plus.

2) Exhibit space rental seemed to be off around 20-25% upstairs in the North and South sides. We saw huge areas that were never sold and a reasonable amount of companies who pre-paid that didn't bother to show up at all. Downstairs (Fo… Continue

Would you rather have a 20% or 40% food cost %? The answer is - "I need more infomation!"

Suppose you purchased a $2 food item and sold it as an entree for $10. Well you realize a 20% food cost and $8 in gross profit. Now imagine you purchased an $8 food item and sold it for $20. Well you now realize a 40% food cost but reap $12 in gross profit. I would rather receive an extra $4 in profit each time I sold a food item. Food Costs are important as they can be used to benchmark your operations, h… Continue

Most food service people are out in their storage areas each and every day. If they stopped to keep a record of their observations, they would have an incredible tool for solving the usage riddles each week. The normal tendency is to check the stock level of the highest volume items frequently. These same items make up a major portion of the cost of goods sold.

Production teams communicate with clipboard lists. The current shift needs to leave a sufficient stock of batch recipe items for the ne… Continue

The chart of the week is the Wisconsin Dairy Cow for Slaughter Market. Dairy cow slaughter prices typically fluctuate with dairy farmer profitability and are a solid indicator of the building or the contraction of the dairy cow herd. And the size of the dairy cow herd is important because it greatly impacts milk production and thus the supply of cheese, butter and other dairy products. As the chart shows, dairy cow slaughter prices in Wisconsin have climbed to their highest levels since October… Continue

The chart of the week is various chicken market trends for the next 11 weeks. It’s been well documented that chicken producer margins have been historically poor leading to a downturn in chicken production. So just like economists look at prior economic recessions and not any other normal year to gauge the current recession we are in, I have a tendency to model expectations for the current chicken markets comparing them to other years where production has been cut. And the latest year that we ex… Continue

The second biggest opportunity for saving money in a restaurant is available at the loading dock. Receiving controls can save you a bundle. The amount of savings is directly proportional with the number of miles from the supplier. If you are the last stop on the delivery route, the morning's rejects may find their way onto your doorstep.

We once followed a rejected case of salmon all over New York when I was working with a local chain. The driver tried to unload the case at each and every locat… Continue

The number one component in your weekly or monthly food cost percentage calculation is food purchases. This figure is modified by the net inventory change before you divide by sales. Many operators tell me they don't count inventory any more. I always ask them how they order food.

In every case, food service operators go to their storage locations when determining the order requirements. This activity is an inventory count. Although there may not be a formal report or a careful valuation, the p… Continue

The chart of the week is the Weekly USDA choice boxed beef cutout. The choice beef cutout is an indicator of overall choice beef prices published by the USDA twice a day. The index is relatively seasonal and is a good indicator of upcoming beef price expectations. As one can tell from the chart below, in mid April the choice beef cutout typically begins a sharp upward move to inflated price levels that carry through the Fourth of July holiday. This is due mainly to a seasonal rise demand for the… Continue

The chart of the week is US CME block cheese and International Cheddar markets. The principal reason cheese and butter prices were so inflated for the better parts of 2007 and 2008 was tight world supplies. This factor and the deflated dollar opened up literally a world of export business for US butter and cheese. Roughly 14% of US butter production was exported in 2008 compared to 6% in 2007 and 1.7% in 2006. Roughly 2.8% of US cheese production was exported in 2008 compared to 2.3% in 2007 and… Continue